{"F": {"ts_code": "300254.SZ", "name": "仟源医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110819", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.7, "pe_ttm": 77.8177, "pb": 4.9759, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 223771.482, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.2, 69.7, 69.7, 67.8, 66.9, 67.4], "rev_series": [8.5, 9.3, 8.3, 8.0, 8.5, 8.7], "np_series": [-2.6, -0.9, -1.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [-34.9, -14.3, -20.4, 4.3, 8.9, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 67.8, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.6, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 20.4, "pb_calc": 4.98, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 65.5, "debt_mv": 22.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.7, "np_yoy": 1025.3, "np_vol": 62.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售商品", 33.0], ["合计特别调整", 13.0], ["泌尿系统药", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.7, "ret_prev2_year": -9.1, "ret_ytd": -14.0, "ret_pivot": 15.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -27.4, "ret_250": -27.8, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 46.8, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 76, "hard": 27, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 78 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 66%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 67.8%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -7% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "仟源医药:PE 比行业中位高 40.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点。"]}}