{"F": {"ts_code": "300253.SZ", "name": "卫宁健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8625, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1543093.7049, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.1, 46.3, 43.7, 45.0, 41.7, 32.8], "rev_series": [22.7, 27.5, 30.9, 31.6, 27.8, 21.1], "np_series": [4.9, 3.8, 1.1, 3.6, 0.9, -3.7], "roe_series": [11.9, 7.9, 2.1, 6.6, 1.5, -6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.6, "np_ttm": -4.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 43.7, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -10.4, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.5, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 2.81, "capex_dep": 9.37, "interest_debt": 11.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 33.3, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -12.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": -49.5, "np_vol": 243.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 280.4, "fwd_pe2": 87.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 220.0, "peg": 1.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["软件服务", 28.0], ["软件及服务", 28.0], ["互联网医疗健康", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.4, "ret_prev2_year": -0.1, "ret_ytd": -20.5, "ret_pivot": 30.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.7, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -23.9, "ret_250": -35.6, "mdd_250": -55.7, "vol_250": 52.8, "pos_52w": 47.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 9, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.7%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 9.37 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 1% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "卫宁健康:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}