{"F": {"ts_code": "300252.SZ", "name": "金信诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.97, "pe_ttm": 239.5636, "pb": 3.309, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 819004.0383, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 16.6, 8.1, 14.7, 17.7, 19.8], "rev_series": [19.6, 27.3, 21.3, 20.0, 21.4, 25.0], "np_series": [-0.7, 0.5, -3.8, -3.3, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-2.8, 2.0, -17.9, -16.5, 0.6, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -5.4, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": -1.0, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.1, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 3.31, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 12.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 55.1, "debt_mv": 15.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.8, "np_yoy": 384.6, "np_vol": 399.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["通信组件及连接器", 19.0], ["组件及用户线系列", 19.0], ["通信电缆及光纤光缆", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.9, "ret_prev2_year": 16.6, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 75.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -28.8, "ret_120": -15.6, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 59.2, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 27, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 240 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.4%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 239.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -29% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "金信诺:PE 比行业中位高 160.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}