{"F": {"ts_code": "300251.SZ", "name": "光线传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.64, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5913, "dv_ttm": 1.2887, "total_mv": 3414696.8976, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.0, 38.3, 19.1, 39.9, 37.7, 66.1], "rev_series": [11.6, 11.7, 7.5, 15.5, 15.9, 40.4], "np_series": [2.9, -3.1, -7.1, 4.2, 2.9, 16.7], "roe_series": [3.2, -3.4, -8.0, 4.9, 3.3, 17.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": -5.2, "ocf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.3, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 38.3, "gm_std": 15.0, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": -33.9, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 11.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.59, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 74.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -90.0, "np_yoy": -98.5, "np_vol": 242.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 46.6, "fwd_pe2": 32.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["经纪业务及其他", 24.0], ["电影及相关衍生业务", 17.0], ["影视剧及相关衍生业务", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.5, "ret_prev2_year": 17.6, "ret_ytd": -28.3, "ret_pivot": 85.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -28.5, "ret_250": -43.8, "mdd_250": -60.3, "vol_250": 55.7, "pos_52w": 43.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 18, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 7%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -33.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 6% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "光线传媒:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}