{"F": {"ts_code": "300250.SZ", "name": "初灵信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.1, "pe_ttm": 87.6988, "pb": 6.182, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 344136.695, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.5, 54.3, 40.5, 52.5, 47.2, 47.9], "rev_series": [4.1, 4.9, 3.6, 3.5, 2.5, 2.4], "np_series": [-3.7, 0.8, -1.1, 0.3, -0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [-42.6, 11.3, -17.9, 4.3, -9.1, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 47.9, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.8, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 6.18, "capex_dep": 0.12, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 24.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -12.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": -46.1, "np_vol": 205.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数据感知", 28.0], ["通信接入设备", 19.0], ["智能连接", 19.0], ["智能应用服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.4, "ret_prev2_year": -19.1, "ret_ytd": -33.0, "ret_pivot": 21.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": -28.1, "ret_250": -12.0, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 70.7, "pos_52w": 50.2}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 61, "hard": 9, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 88 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 24%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.9%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 87.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 6% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "初灵信息:PE 比行业中位高 3.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}