{"F": {"ts_code": "300248.SZ", "name": "新开普", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110729", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.9, "pe_ttm": 83.7108, "pb": 2.0111, "dv_ttm": 0.8989, "total_mv": 423950.076, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.3, 61.1, 56.2, 57.9, 58.9, 56.0], "rev_series": [9.4, 10.2, 10.7, 10.6, 9.8, 9.8], "np_series": [1.8, 1.6, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [10.6, 8.7, 5.7, 5.2, 5.2, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 57.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 17.8, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 10.93, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 15.5, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": -11.4, "rev_yoy": 2.2, "np_yoy": -88.2, "np_vol": 13.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 35.6, "fwd_pe2": 29.7, "fwd_g1": 135.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 1.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智慧校园应用解决方案", 22.0], ["智慧政企应用解决方案", 15.0], ["运维服务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.4, "ret_prev2_year": 1.9, "ret_ytd": -27.8, "ret_pivot": 29.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.9, "ret_60": 8.4, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -42.7, "mdd_250": -53.9, "vol_250": 49.3, "pos_52w": 56.3}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 69, "hard": 22, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 83.7 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 35.6 倍,次年 29.7 倍,PEG 1.78。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.9%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 10.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 8% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "新开普:PE 比行业中位高 32.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点。"]}}