{"F": {"ts_code": "300243.SZ", "name": "瑞丰高材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.36, "pe_ttm": 56.4078, "pb": 2.771, "dv_ttm": 0.5846, "total_mv": 429407.3856, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 18.4, 16.8, 18.3, 14.8, 15.1], "rev_series": [13.0, 18.6, 18.3, 17.8, 20.0, 19.7], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, 0.6, 0.9, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [12.0, 11.3, 6.7, 8.2, 1.9, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.5, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.77, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 33.6, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": -20.8, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": 348.4, "np_vol": 43.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 34.1, "fwd_pe2": 21.3, "fwd_g1": 65.0, "fwd_g2": 60.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["ACR助剂", 41.0], ["MBS抗冲改性剂", 33.0], ["MC抗冲改性剂", 8.0], ["工程塑料（PC/ABS/ASA）助剂", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.2, "ret_prev2_year": -1.6, "ret_ytd": 48.5, "ret_pivot": 113.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -18.0, "ret_120": 1.7, "ret_250": 38.8, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 72.1, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 44, "hard": 52, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -18% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "瑞丰高材:PE 比行业中位高 15.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}