{"F": {"ts_code": "300240.SZ", "name": "飞力达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.11, "pe_ttm": 508.4857, "pb": 1.5715, "dv_ttm": 0.3273, "total_mv": 227024.9319, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.1, 7.2, 6.8, 8.1, 6.3, 7.1], "rev_series": [37.1, 69.6, 67.7, 50.2, 66.2, 64.5], "np_series": [-0.1, 1.9, 1.1, 0.2, -0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-0.7, 15.0, 7.7, 1.5, -0.8, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 67.5, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 16.2, "gm_median": 7.1, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 2.7, "interest_debt": 14.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 65.0, "payout": 50.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.6, "np_cagr3": -55.1, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": -17.6, "np_vol": 963.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["国际货运代理", 56.0], ["综合物流服务", 44.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.8, "ret_prev2_year": -2.3, "ret_ytd": -18.8, "ret_pivot": 10.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.1, "ret_60": 13.1, "ret_120": -19.0, "ret_250": -29.9, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 32.6, "pos_52w": 69.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 27, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 508.5 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 16.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 508.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 13% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "飞力达:PE 比行业中位高 487.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}