{"F": {"ts_code": "300236.SZ", "name": "上海新阳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 81.2, "pe_ttm": 66.8597, "pb": 3.7264, "dv_ttm": 0.5886, "total_mv": 2544662.652, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.2, 35.4, 31.4, 35.2, 39.3, 41.0], "rev_series": [6.9, 10.2, 12.0, 12.1, 14.8, 19.4], "np_series": [2.7, 1.0, 0.5, 1.7, 1.8, 3.0], "roe_series": [8.8, 2.1, 1.2, 4.0, 4.0, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.4, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 35.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.1, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.73, "capex_dep": 6.04, "interest_debt": 6.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 23.2, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": 46.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.4, "np_cagr3": 78.1, "rev_yoy": 33.7, "np_yoy": 60.0, "np_vol": 99.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 58.6, "fwd_pe2": 40.7, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["集成电路材料", 88.0], ["涂料品", 18.0], ["集成电路材料配套设备及配件", 4.0], ["集成电路电镀加工", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.8, "ret_prev2_year": 6.9, "ret_ytd": 28.3, "ret_pivot": 211.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.6, "ret_60": -20.4, "ret_120": -2.1, "ret_250": 46.3, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 71.3, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 55, "hard": 24, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 66.9 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 58.6 倍,次年 40.7 倍,PEG 1.33。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.4%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 6.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 46%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -20% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "上海新阳:PE 比行业中位低 27.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.8个百分点。"]}}