{"F": {"ts_code": "300234.SZ", "name": "开尔新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.16, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.5466, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 511221.736, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 24.6, 25.5, 30.6, 23.6, 21.0], "rev_series": [4.4, 7.8, 7.0, 6.1, 4.5, 2.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [8.2, 7.5, 7.2, 6.8, 2.1, -0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 24.6, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.55, "capex_dep": 0.22, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 43.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -25.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.0, "np_yoy": -110.4, "np_vol": 55.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业保护搪瓷材料", 42.0], ["内立面装饰搪瓷材料", 26.0], ["幕墙装饰", 11.0], ["幕墙施工", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.1, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": 84.7, "ret_pivot": 177.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.0, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": 66.3, "ret_250": 77.0, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 52.7, "pos_52w": 86.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 24, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 14%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.22 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 77%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 3% / 66%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "开尔新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}