{"F": {"ts_code": "300231.SZ", "name": "银信科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.5, "pe_ttm": 130.2355, "pb": 2.3815, "dv_ttm": 1.7629, "total_mv": 378034.525, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.1, 23.0, 20.8, 23.2, 22.1, 18.2], "rev_series": [23.2, 23.5, 24.2, 19.8, 16.1, 18.6], "np_series": [1.6, 1.7, 1.7, 1.1, -1.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [12.3, 11.7, 11.3, 6.6, -7.3, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 8.4, "ocf_yield": 8.7, "gm_median": 22.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.7, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 35.8, "debt_mv": 14.9, "payout": 94.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.4, "np_cagr3": -29.5, "rev_yoy": -16.1, "np_yoy": -65.1, "np_vol": 116.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["IT基础设施运维服务", 15.0], ["IT基础设施服务", 15.0], ["系统集成设备", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.0, "ret_prev2_year": 24.1, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": -35.7, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 51, "hard": 30, "bondness": 75}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.2 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 3% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "银信科技:PE 比行业中位高 46.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}