{"F": {"ts_code": "300229.SZ", "name": "拓尔思", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2779, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1204723.2211, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.1, 62.1, 63.7, 68.4, 61.6, 61.4], "rev_series": [13.1, 10.3, 9.1, 7.8, 7.8, 5.1], "np_series": [3.2, 2.5, 1.3, 0.4, -0.9, -2.9], "roe_series": [15.1, 10.4, 4.9, 1.2, -2.5, -7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": -3.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 62.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 5.6, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.5, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.9, "pb_calc": 3.28, "capex_dep": 2.44, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 7.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 64.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -17.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -48.4, "np_yoy": -129.2, "np_vol": 126.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["人工智能软件产品及服务", 22.0], ["大数据软件产品及服务", 16.0], ["安全产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 24.4, "ret_ytd": -30.7, "ret_pivot": 14.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -8.6, "ret_120": -30.4, "ret_250": -48.9, "mdd_250": -61.4, "vol_250": 54.8, "pos_52w": 44.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 76, "hard": 20, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 8%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.1%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -9% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "拓尔思:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点。"]}}