{"F": {"ts_code": "300219.SZ", "name": "鸿利智汇", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.03, "pe_ttm": 40.301, "pb": 1.938, "dv_ttm": 2.845, "total_mv": 497684.2805, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 20.8, 21.3, 22.6, 18.6, 16.6], "rev_series": [31.2, 40.8, 36.4, 37.6, 42.3, 43.5], "np_series": [0.9, 2.7, 1.8, 2.1, 0.8, 1.0], "roe_series": [5.0, 13.0, 7.9, 8.6, 3.2, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.0, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 20.8, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.0, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.0, "fix_assets": 18.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 18.5, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": -18.3, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": 166.8, "np_vol": 86.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["LED封装板块", 34.0], ["汽车照明产品", 10.0], ["LED汽车照明产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.3, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": -1.1, "ret_pivot": 27.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -15.6, "ret_120": -15.0, "ret_250": -0.0, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 45.4, "pos_52w": 67.4}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 49, "hard": 46, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.3 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -16% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "鸿利智汇:PE 比行业中位低 21.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}