{"F": {"ts_code": "300218.SZ", "name": "安利股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.98, "pe_ttm": 39.4409, "pb": 1.9009, "dv_ttm": 1.974, "total_mv": 281649.126, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.3, 22.9, 15.9, 20.9, 24.1, 23.5], "rev_series": [15.5, 20.5, 19.5, 20.0, 24.0, 22.7], "np_series": [0.5, 1.3, 1.4, 0.7, 1.9, 1.3], "roe_series": [4.8, 12.0, 12.0, 5.6, 14.4, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.9, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 29.9, "debt_mv": 9.0, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": -64.3, "np_vol": 96.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 20.4, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 93.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["生态功能性聚氨酯合成革", 32.0], ["合成革-生态功能性合成革", 32.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 15.3, "ret_ytd": -18.8, "ret_pivot": -1.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -21.5, "ret_250": -44.9, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 36.2, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 47, "hard": 56, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.4 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 3% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "安利股份:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}