{"F": {"ts_code": "300214.SZ", "name": "日科化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.65, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2312, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 541611.529, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.0, 13.5, 13.4, 9.1, 5.4, 6.9], "rev_series": [22.7, 27.7, 27.6, 25.4, 35.2, 37.4], "np_series": [2.1, 1.9, 2.0, 0.8, -0.7, -0.3], "roe_series": [11.3, 8.9, 8.0, 3.3, -2.7, -1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.9, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 9.1, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.1, "fix_assets": 25.7, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 2.23, "capex_dep": 15.07, "interest_debt": 13.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 49.9, "debt_mv": 24.9, "payout": 22.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.6, "np_yoy": 2518.6, "np_vol": 80.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["ACM系列产品", 20.0], ["ACM低温增韧剂", 20.0], ["ACR系列产品", 20.0], ["ACR抗冲加工改性剂", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.5, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": 74.4, "ret_pivot": 168.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": 60.0, "ret_120": 48.4, "ret_250": 43.5, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 69.6, "pos_52w": 81.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 32, "hard": 82, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 15.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 60% / 48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "日科化学:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}