{"F": {"ts_code": "300209.SZ", "name": "行云科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 34.4023, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3232582.2641, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.9, 7.2, 30.6, 3.6, 14.6, 15.1], "rev_series": [50.3, 17.6, 7.7, 4.6, 3.9, 1.4], "np_series": [-8.7, -26.8, -3.7, -4.8, 0.6, -0.8], "roe_series": [-24.5, -151.0, -145.4, null, 21.9, -9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -9.5, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 9.3, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -25.3, "npm_median": -65.0, "roe_median": -77.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.1, "fix_assets": 20.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 34.4, "capex_dep": 503.17, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 73.6, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -42.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 497.1, "np_yoy": 540.2, "np_vol": 147.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电商业务", 37.0], ["B2C业务", 37.0], ["服务器业务", 16.0], ["软件开发及运维服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.7, "ret_prev2_year": 325.1, "ret_ytd": 538.7, "ret_pivot": 1878.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": 28.4, "ret_120": 275.1, "ret_250": 558.0, "mdd_250": -30.0, "vol_250": 91.4, "pos_52w": 88.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 24, "hard": 93, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.3 个百分点;资产负债率 74%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 37%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 503.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 558%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 91%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 28% / 275%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "行云科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 34.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 49.3个百分点。"]}}