{"F": {"ts_code": "300207.SZ", "name": "欣旺达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.84, "pe_ttm": 38.6957, "pb": 1.2875, "dv_ttm": 0.8868, "total_mv": 3111126.7591, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 14.7, 13.8, 14.6, 15.2, 13.9], "rev_series": [296.9, 373.6, 521.6, 478.6, 560.2, 632.5], "np_series": [8.0, 9.2, 10.6, 10.8, 14.7, 10.6], "roe_series": [12.7, 9.2, 6.4, 5.0, 6.3, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 744.4, "np_ttm": 8.0, "ocf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_ttm": -88.9, "fcf_yield": -28.6, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.4, "fix_assets": 381.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.29, "capex_dep": 4.04, "interest_debt": 378.1, "debt_ebitda": 9.7, "debt_ratio": 73.6, "debt_mv": 121.5, "payout": 20.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": 41.5, "np_yoy": -29.6, "np_vol": 21.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.8, "fwd_g1": 167.0, "fwd_g2": 48.0, "peg": 0.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["消费类电池", 15.0], ["电动汽车类电池", 14.0], ["电动汽车电池", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.4, "ret_prev2_year": 53.5, "ret_ytd": -35.4, "ret_pivot": 10.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.9, "ret_60": -12.0, "ret_120": -37.6, "ret_250": -25.7, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 50.4, "pos_52w": 46.0}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 48, "hard": 49, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -28.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.7 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -12% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "欣旺达:PE 比行业中位高 2.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}