{"F": {"ts_code": "300205.SZ", "name": "*ST天喻", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.5412, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 214167.888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 24.7, 30.2, 27.4, 24.2, 24.6], "rev_series": [16.9, 14.3, 17.9, 17.0, 8.5, 1.7], "np_series": [-0.6, -1.5, 0.9, 0.2, -4.1, -6.1], "roe_series": [-4.4, -11.0, 6.0, 1.3, -32.1, -79.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.1, "np_ttm": -5.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -8.7, "ocf_yield": -8.7, "gm_median": 24.7, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 8.0, "npm_median": -10.7, "roe_median": -11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.9, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.54, "capex_dep": 0.08, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 60.2, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": 43.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -54.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -72.2, "np_yoy": 16.1, "np_vol": 862.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能卡", 44.0], ["技术服务与开发", 29.0], ["终端", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.1, "ret_prev2_year": -59.8, "ret_ytd": 3.7, "ret_pivot": -1.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": -9.3, "ret_120": -9.0, "ret_250": -3.3, "mdd_250": -33.1, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 6, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -8.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.7%(经营现金流/市值 -8.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.08 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -9% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "*ST天喻:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点。"]}}