{"F": {"ts_code": "300203.SZ", "name": "聚光科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.57, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1854, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 564063.1632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 36.3, 37.3, 41.3, 44.4, 38.1], "rev_series": [41.0, 37.5, 34.5, 31.8, 36.1, 30.0], "np_series": [4.9, -2.3, -3.7, -3.2, 2.1, -2.3], "roe_series": [13.8, -6.4, -11.1, -10.5, 6.9, -8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.5, "np_ttm": -2.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_yield": 9.1, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 38.1, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": -9.2, "roe_median": -8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.5, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 2.19, "capex_dep": 0.13, "interest_debt": 34.0, "debt_ebitda": 84.3, "debt_ratio": 68.1, "debt_mv": 60.3, "payout": 54.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.9, "np_yoy": -70.5, "np_vol": 131.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 139.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["仪器、相关软件及耗材", 33.0], ["运营服务、检测服务及咨询服务", 7.0], ["环境设备及工程", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": -4.0, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 21.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -3.3, "ret_120": -13.2, "ret_250": -42.0, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 12, "bondness": 54}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 68%,有息负债 34 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.1%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -3% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "聚光科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.9个百分点。"]}}