{"F": {"ts_code": "300201.SZ", "name": "海伦哲", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110407", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.43, "pe_ttm": 38.4015, "pb": 7.176, "dv_ttm": 0.2215, "total_mv": 1355145.5548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.1, 28.7, 32.2, 32.6, 33.8, 32.0], "rev_series": [20.4, 16.7, 10.2, 13.5, 15.9, 17.2], "np_series": [-4.7, 1.3, 0.7, 2.1, 2.2, 3.1], "roe_series": [2.5, 10.7, 5.5, 15.4, 15.6, 18.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.9, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 8.1, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 12.2, "pb_calc": 7.18, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 43.3, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 13.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 18.9, "np_cagr3": 62.0, "rev_yoy": 46.7, "np_yoy": 52.4, "np_vol": 82.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 27.4, "fwd_pe2": 18.7, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["消防车及消防产品", 31.0], ["消防车", 31.0], ["高空作业车", 24.0], ["电源车", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.8, "ret_prev2_year": 5.2, "ret_ytd": 97.5, "ret_pivot": 334.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.7, "ret_60": -22.2, "ret_120": 24.0, "ret_250": 134.0, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 60.9, "pos_52w": 63.7}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 61, "hard": 18, "bondness": 11}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 52%,PE TTM 38.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 27.4 倍,PEG 0.58。", "自由现金流 3.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 47%(6 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.2%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 134%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -22% / 24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "海伦哲:PE 比行业中位高 10.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}