{"F": {"ts_code": "300191.SZ", "name": "潜能恒信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油气及炼化工程", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.66, "pe_ttm": 62.1047, "pb": 9.5386, "dv_ttm": 0.1364, "total_mv": 1173120.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.1, 44.2, 52.2, 35.5, 27.1, 36.4], "rev_series": [4.3, 4.1, 4.8, 4.8, 4.9, 7.1], "np_series": [0.1, 0.3, 0.4, -1.3, -0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [0.9, 2.8, 3.3, -10.7, -4.8, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 8.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 17.2, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 29.3, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.54, "capex_dep": 4.11, "interest_debt": 20.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 73.9, "debt_mv": 17.0, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 200.5, "np_yoy": 522.9, "np_vol": 226.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["油气开采", 98.0], ["石油勘探技术服务", 1.0], ["石油勘探技术", 1.0], ["租赁", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": 98.9, "ret_pivot": 210.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.1, "ret_60": 24.0, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": 71.1, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 78.7, "pos_52w": 69.1}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 70, "hard": 47, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 62 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 20 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.4%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 4.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 71%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 24% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "潜能恒信:PE 比行业中位高 0.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}