{"F": {"ts_code": "300189.SZ", "name": "神农种业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.05, "pe_ttm": 66.8332, "pb": 10.5366, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 721920.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 30.2, 32.0, 35.6, 37.5, 35.4], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6, 2.5], "np_series": [-1.2, -0.6, -0.6, -0.4, -0.5, 1.1], "roe_series": [-12.0, -6.3, -7.7, -4.6, -6.8, 15.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.2, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 35.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": -33.1, "roe_median": -6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.54, "capex_dep": 3.51, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 39.8, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -35.3, "np_yoy": 6.0, "np_vol": 125.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["杂交水稻种子", 26.0], ["其他种子", 11.0], ["玉米种子", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.3, "ret_prev2_year": 19.5, "ret_ytd": -5.2, "ret_pivot": 231.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 43.6, "ret_60": 43.9, "ret_120": -14.6, "ret_250": 39.6, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 72.8, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 59, "hard": 56, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 67 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 35%、毛利率 35.4% 两条都占,但所在行业(农林牧渔)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 3.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 44% / 44% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "神农种业:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}