{"F": {"ts_code": "300188.SZ", "name": "国投智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.37, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.7521, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 891277.9601, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.6, 58.4, 52.2, 46.0, 40.6, 32.0], "rev_series": [23.9, 25.4, 22.8, 19.8, 17.7, 14.1], "np_series": [3.7, 3.1, 1.5, -2.1, -4.2, -7.8], "roe_series": [12.0, 9.2, 3.8, -5.0, -11.1, -25.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.4, "np_ttm": -8.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 46.0, "gm_std": 9.1, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": -9.9, "roe_median": -5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 3.75, "capex_dep": 3.44, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 38.7, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -14.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.9, "np_yoy": -22.4, "np_vol": 75.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["公共安全数智化", 24.0], ["交通与安全大数据公共服务示范平台", 24.0], ["电子数据取证产品", 19.0], ["电子数据取证", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.9, "ret_ytd": -29.0, "ret_pivot": -12.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -25.4, "ret_250": -42.2, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 12, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -8.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 46.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 3.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 2% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "国投智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}