{"F": {"ts_code": "300185.SZ", "name": "通裕重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.7, "pe_ttm": 132.593, "pb": 1.5345, "dv_ttm": 0.2856, "total_mv": 1089774.432, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 17.5, 15.8, 17.3, 12.7, 13.5], "rev_series": [56.9, 57.5, 59.1, 58.1, 61.5, 65.9], "np_series": [3.8, 2.8, 2.5, 2.0, 0.4, 0.7], "roe_series": [7.0, 4.7, 3.7, 3.0, 0.6, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 11.1, "fcf_ttm": 7.0, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 10.2, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.0, "fix_assets": 63.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.49, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 45.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 49.3, "debt_mv": 41.4, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": -35.7, "rev_yoy": 20.7, "np_yoy": 27.5, "np_vol": 44.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["风电装备模块化业务", 19.0], ["其他锻件", 17.0], ["铸件(含铸钢产品)", 13.0], ["铸件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.0, "ret_prev2_year": 8.3, "ret_ytd": -4.9, "ret_pivot": 51.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -35.8, "ret_250": -12.7, "mdd_250": -38.7, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 64.2}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 42, "hard": 70, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 132.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -2% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "通裕重工:PE 比行业中位高 100.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点。"]}}