{"F": {"ts_code": "300182.SZ", "name": "捷成股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.22, "pe_ttm": 67.6465, "pb": 1.6261, "dv_ttm": 0.1341, "total_mv": 1390516.9632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 23.0, 31.8, 31.5, 18.8, 21.4], "rev_series": [31.8, 37.3, 39.1, 28.0, 28.7, 26.4], "np_series": [-12.4, 4.3, 5.2, 4.5, 2.4, 1.9], "roe_series": [-18.2, 6.7, 7.4, 5.9, 3.0, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.8, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 10.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 9.1, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 25.5, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 542.01, "interest_debt": 8.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 7.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -12.2, "np_cagr3": -28.5, "rev_yoy": -26.6, "np_yoy": 10.5, "np_vol": 63.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["影视版权运营及服务", 35.0], ["数字化营销服务", 7.0], ["影视剧内容制作", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.9, "ret_prev2_year": 15.6, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": 30.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": -15.2, "ret_250": -18.3, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 56.5, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 50, "hard": 0, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.6 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 542.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -8% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "捷成股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}