{"F": {"ts_code": "300180.SZ", "name": "华峰超纤", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.87, "pe_ttm": 344.4945, "pb": 1.8217, "dv_ttm": 0.1027, "total_mv": 857636.2687, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 19.0, 14.3, 11.9, 16.3, 15.1], "rev_series": [32.2, 41.4, 42.3, 45.9, 45.8, 40.0], "np_series": [-4.8, 0.6, -3.5, -2.3, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [-9.4, 1.2, -7.2, -5.0, 1.5, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.3, "fix_assets": 30.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 21.3, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 12.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.8, "np_yoy": -55.3, "np_vol": 297.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["超细纤维底坯", 13.0], ["超细纤维合成革", 13.0], ["尼龙6切片", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.1, "ret_prev2_year": 42.6, "ret_ytd": -29.7, "ret_pivot": 21.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 11.2, "ret_120": -28.1, "ret_250": -46.5, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 39.4, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 80, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 344.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 11% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "华峰超纤:PE 比行业中位高 303.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.4个百分点。"]}}