{"F": {"ts_code": "300179.SZ", "name": "四方达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "磨具磨料", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.69, "pe_ttm": 150.8416, "pb": 15.3445, "dv_ttm": 0.8133, "total_mv": 1782120.9891, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.8, 52.9, 55.6, 51.5, 52.9, 41.4], "rev_series": [3.2, 4.2, 5.1, 5.4, 5.2, 5.7], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.5, 1.4, 1.2, 0.9], "roe_series": [8.3, 10.0, 15.4, 12.2, 9.7, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 52.9, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 6.8, "npm_median": 22.1, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 15.34, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 82.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.3, "np_cagr3": -15.4, "rev_yoy": 43.8, "np_yoy": 46.9, "np_vol": 33.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 104.8, "fwd_pe2": 61.1, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 71.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["资源开采/工程施工类", 19.0], ["精密加工类", 13.0], ["CVD金刚石类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.9, "ret_prev2_year": 30.9, "ret_ytd": 147.6, "ret_pivot": 514.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -11.2, "ret_120": 49.8, "ret_250": 256.6, "mdd_250": -53.8, "vol_250": 92.3, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 59}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 150.8 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 104.8 倍,次年 61.1 倍,PEG 1.48。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.9%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 150.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 257%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 92%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -11% / 50%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "四方达:PE 比行业中位高 100.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}