{"F": {"ts_code": "300176.SZ", "name": "鸿特科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.53, "pe_ttm": 184.3244, "pb": 2.5327, "dv_ttm": 0.3217, "total_mv": 240748.6167, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 11.3, 13.2, 14.0, 13.2, 14.6], "rev_series": [11.7, 12.9, 15.2, 17.0, 17.3, 18.4], "np_series": [0.2, -0.5, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.3, -5.2, 1.2, 1.7, 3.0, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -15.0, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.8, "fix_assets": 13.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.53, "capex_dep": 3.39, "interest_debt": 10.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 66.7, "debt_mv": 43.9, "payout": 21.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": 66.7, "rev_yoy": 1.0, "np_yoy": -188.1, "np_vol": 165.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["传统燃油压铸件", 36.0], ["新能源压铸件", 10.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.8, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": -0.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 26.0, "pos_52w": 66.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 44, "hard": 76, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 3.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 184.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "鸿特科技:PE 比行业中位高 154.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点。"]}}