{"F": {"ts_code": "300170.SZ", "name": "汉得信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.61, "pe_ttm": 73.2399, "pb": 2.9712, "dv_ttm": 0.0888, "total_mv": 1728137.1217, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.8, 25.7, 29.6, 26.8, 32.9, 35.7], "rev_series": [24.9, 28.1, 30.1, 29.8, 32.4, 34.2], "np_series": [0.7, 2.0, 4.4, -0.3, 1.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [2.1, 5.9, 11.9, -0.6, 3.8, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.1, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 14.56, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 16.0, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 18.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": -19.7, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": 11.0, "np_vol": 329.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 58.5, "fwd_pe2": 47.5, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 2.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["产业数字化-C2M", 18.0], ["泛ERP", 15.0], ["财务数字化-GMC", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.2, "ret_prev2_year": 50.0, "ret_ytd": -12.1, "ret_pivot": 149.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -29.0, "ret_250": -19.7, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 64.8, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 50, "hard": 9, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.2 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 58.5 倍,次年 47.5 倍,PEG 2.54。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 14.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -1% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "汉得信息:PE 比行业中位低 10.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点。"]}}