{"F": {"ts_code": "300166.SZ", "name": "东方国信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.66, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.5495, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1441652.1828, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.5, 40.4, 31.1, 23.4, 30.7, 25.5], "rev_series": [20.9, 24.7, 22.9, 23.8, 27.9, 26.1], "np_series": [3.0, 3.0, -3.6, -3.9, 0.3, -2.2], "roe_series": [5.3, 4.8, -5.4, -6.1, 0.5, -3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.7, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -18.8, "fcf_yield": -13.0, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -15.4, "npm_median": -8.9, "roe_median": -3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.5, "fix_assets": 31.3, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 2.55, "capex_dep": 14.26, "interest_debt": 45.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.6, "debt_ratio": 49.8, "debt_mv": 31.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.9, "np_yoy": -0.6, "np_vol": 343.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 120.6, "fwd_pe2": 55.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 119.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["软件定制开发及技术服务", 21.0], ["定制软件开发及服务", 21.0], ["算力服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.7, "ret_prev2_year": 0.0, "ret_ytd": 23.9, "ret_pivot": 93.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.6, "ret_60": -13.6, "ret_120": 4.6, "ret_250": 1.0, "mdd_250": -44.0, "vol_250": 71.3, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 44, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 46 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 14.26 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -14% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "东方国信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点。"]}}