{"F": {"ts_code": "300164.SZ", "name": "通源石油", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油气及炼化工程", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3874, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 595520.1032, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.2, 34.5, 33.6, 34.0, 28.6, 24.9], "rev_series": [6.3, 7.5, 7.7, 10.3, 12.0, 11.5], "np_series": [-10.5, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [-79.4, 1.6, 2.2, 4.2, 4.1, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 33.6, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 23.3, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 9.5, "pb_calc": 4.39, "capex_dep": 1.11, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 32.3, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": 18.0, "rev_yoy": -10.6, "np_yoy": -163.8, "np_vol": 58.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["射孔销售及服务项目", 48.0], ["复合射孔业务", 48.0], ["油田其他服务", 2.0], ["其他油田服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.6, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": 83.3, "ret_pivot": 197.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.2, "ret_60": 10.1, "ret_120": -49.0, "ret_250": 85.0, "mdd_250": -69.2, "vol_250": 91.3, "pos_52w": 41.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 31, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.6%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 23.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 85%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 91%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 10% / -49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "通源石油:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}