{"F": {"ts_code": "300163.SZ", "name": "先锋新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.5862, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 353604.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 19.6, 17.9, 17.1, 17.3, 16.3], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.1, 3.0, 2.5, 2.6, 2.2], "np_series": [0.2, -0.0, -0.0, -1.0, -0.1, 0.7], "roe_series": [3.1, -0.6, -0.3, -18.3, -2.0, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.9, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": -1.3, "roe_median": -0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.0, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.59, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 15.9, "debt_ratio": 12.8, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -21.9, "np_yoy": -135.8, "np_vol": 2386.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["阳光面料", 20.0], ["窗饰及遮阳成品", 18.0], ["窗饰及遮阳产品", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.1, "ret_prev2_year": -39.1, "ret_ytd": 84.2, "ret_pivot": 384.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.8, "ret_60": 17.9, "ret_120": 53.5, "ret_250": 116.9, "mdd_250": -42.2, "vol_250": 70.9, "pos_52w": 91.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 53, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 15.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 117%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 18% / 54%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "先锋新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}