{"F": {"ts_code": "300161.SZ", "name": "华中数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.48, "pe_ttm": 810.1303, "pb": 3.4436, "dv_ttm": 0.0755, "total_mv": 526149.3912, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 31.5, 34.1, 32.9, 33.5, 37.0], "rev_series": [13.2, 16.3, 16.6, 21.1, 17.8, 15.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, -0.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [2.4, 2.2, 1.0, 1.6, -3.4, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.3, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.44, "capex_dep": 3.47, "interest_debt": 14.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": 26.8, "payout": 19.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.0, "np_cagr3": -1.0, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": -12.1, "np_vol": 147.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 120.4, "fwd_pe2": 66.2, "fwd_g1": 573.0, "fwd_g2": 82.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["数控系统与机床", 36.0], ["机器人与智能产线", 9.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.3, "ret_prev2_year": -26.6, "ret_ytd": -8.8, "ret_pivot": 39.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -12.6, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -11.4, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 64.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 40, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 810.1 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.5%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 3.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 810.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -13% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华中数控:PE 比行业中位高 759.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}