{"F": {"ts_code": "300159.SZ", "name": "新研股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "农用机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.06, "pe_ttm": 42.3454, "pb": 3.6272, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1006868.826, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.9, 20.6, 28.8, 24.7, 17.6, 17.3], "rev_series": [9.3, 13.6, 21.4, 11.9, 6.6, 6.4], "np_series": [-5.0, -2.6, 0.8, -1.3, -3.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [-79.0, -102.8, 55.0, -140.7, null, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 20.6, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 6.9, "npm_median": -12.5, "roe_median": -49.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.1, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.63, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 16.7, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -33.2, "np_cagr3": -17.4, "rev_yoy": 52.3, "np_yoy": 115.6, "np_vol": 158.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["专用设备制造(农机)收入", 18.0], ["专用设备制造(农机)", 18.0], ["航空航天飞行器零部件", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 153.5, "ret_prev2_year": 6.2, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": 203.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -26.1, "ret_120": -0.3, "ret_250": 109.1, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 127.2, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 49, "hard": 39, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 42 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 17%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 109%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 127%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -26% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "新研股份:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}