{"F": {"ts_code": "300153.SZ", "name": "科泰电源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.82, "pe_ttm": 88.4811, "pb": 7.7125, "dv_ttm": 0.3067, "total_mv": 730240.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.9, 15.3, 15.3, 13.7, 13.2, 14.0], "rev_series": [7.0, 9.5, 8.8, 10.9, 12.7, 17.6], "np_series": [-1.7, 0.1, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [-20.1, 1.1, 3.6, 4.0, 4.1, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.5, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.71, "capex_dep": 1.7, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 75.5, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 44.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 26.3, "np_cagr3": 21.9, "rev_yoy": 110.8, "np_yoy": 131.7, "np_vol": 83.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["环保低噪声柴油发电机组", 91.0], ["工程劳务零配件", 3.0], ["安装劳务零配件", 3.0], ["新能源销售其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.0, "ret_prev2_year": 99.2, "ret_ytd": -21.3, "ret_pivot": 286.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.0, "ret_60": 0.0, "ret_120": -32.0, "ret_250": -51.4, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 57.2, "pos_52w": 49.3}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 50, "hard": 4, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 88.5 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 0% / -32%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "科泰电源:PE 比行业中位高 19.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点。"]}}