{"F": {"ts_code": "300151.SZ", "name": "昌红科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.57, "pe_ttm": 153.8419, "pb": 5.4124, "dv_ttm": 0.5138, "total_mv": 829117.2915, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 29.3, 28.2, 26.7, 27.0, 25.5], "rev_series": [11.2, 11.3, 12.3, 9.3, 10.4, 9.9], "np_series": [1.7, 1.1, 1.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.6], "roe_series": [17.7, 10.2, 10.4, 2.2, 6.2, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 27.0, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.3, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.16, "capex_dep": 3.84, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 35.9, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 71.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.8, "np_cagr3": -20.4, "rev_yoy": -7.6, "np_yoy": -34.6, "np_vol": 105.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能制造产品", 42.0], ["医疗器械及耗材", 21.0], ["医疗器械业务", 21.0], ["精密模具及自动线设备", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.0, "ret_prev2_year": -7.0, "ret_ytd": 3.8, "ret_pivot": 19.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.0, "ret_60": -27.7, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": 3.5, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 60.1, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 50, "hard": 74, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 153.8 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%、固定资产占比 46%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 3.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 153.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -28% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "昌红科技:PE 比行业中位高 111.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.3个百分点。"]}}