{"F": {"ts_code": "300146.SZ", "name": "汤臣倍健", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "保健品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.87, "pe_ttm": 25.7366, "pb": 1.5354, "dv_ttm": 4.5148, "total_mv": 1669685.2977, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.8, 66.1, 68.3, 68.9, 66.7, 67.9], "rev_series": [60.9, 74.3, 78.6, 94.1, 68.4, 62.7], "np_series": [15.2, 17.5, 13.9, 17.5, 6.5, 7.8], "roe_series": [23.6, 20.1, 13.1, 15.3, 5.6, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.0, "np_ttm": 6.5, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": 6.3, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 67.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 5.5, "npm_median": 18.0, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.8, "fix_assets": 29.3, "goodwill_ratio": 8.4, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 10.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 18.6, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 92.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": -17.4, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": -18.1, "np_vol": 33.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.9, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["胶囊", 38.0], ["片剂", 28.0], ["粉剂", 25.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.8, "ret_prev2_year": -26.6, "ret_ytd": -14.6, "ret_pivot": -1.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -11.6, "ret_250": -18.0, "mdd_250": -28.3, "vol_250": 24.8, "pos_52w": 78.3}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 80, "hard": 35, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 92%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 -7.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 67.9%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.9%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.7 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 2% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "汤臣倍健:PE 比行业中位低 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 44.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}