{"F": {"ts_code": "300142.SZ", "name": "沃森生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.98, "pe_ttm": 109.9709, "pb": 2.9738, "dv_ttm": 1.1941, "total_mv": 2075954.4828, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [86.4, 88.6, 88.0, 85.5, 79.7, 74.6], "rev_series": [29.4, 34.6, 50.9, 41.1, 28.2, 24.2], "np_series": [10.0, 4.3, 7.3, 4.2, 1.4, 1.8], "roe_series": [17.6, 5.7, 8.3, 4.6, 1.5, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.0, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 85.5, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 12.4, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.0, "fix_assets": 39.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 12.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 30.2, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 11.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -22.0, "np_cagr3": -37.5, "rev_yoy": -27.7, "np_yoy": 25.6, "np_vol": 53.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["疫苗类产品", 33.0], ["疫苗产品", 33.0], ["合成生物制品", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.7, "ret_prev2_year": -48.9, "ret_ytd": 20.7, "ret_pivot": 33.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": 17.7, "ret_120": 8.8, "ret_250": -2.4, "mdd_250": -30.6, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 80.6}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 84, "hard": 61, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 110.0 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 85.5%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 85.5% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 85.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 110.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 18% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "沃森生物:PE 比行业中位高 77.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点。"]}}