{"F": {"ts_code": "300139.SZ", "name": "晓程科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.96, "pe_ttm": 86.4503, "pb": 12.0725, "dv_ttm": 0.1925, "total_mv": 1423704.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.7, 51.9, 55.9, 35.4, 57.7, 62.5], "rev_series": [1.8, 1.9, 2.2, 2.4, 3.5, 6.3], "np_series": [-1.0, 0.8, -0.8, -0.3, 0.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [-9.8, 7.9, -8.0, -3.5, 4.7, 13.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 55.9, "gm_std": 9.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 17.9, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 26.7, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 12.07, "capex_dep": 2.78, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 19.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 18.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 42.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 44.3, "np_yoy": 31.2, "np_vol": 164.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["黄金销售", 47.0], ["黄金生产销售", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 108.8, "ret_prev2_year": 43.9, "ret_ytd": 71.7, "ret_pivot": 307.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 30.1, "ret_120": -18.9, "ret_250": 167.1, "mdd_250": -60.4, "vol_250": 94.9, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 70, "hard": 43, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 86 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 20%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.9%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 2.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 86.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 167%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 95%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 30% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "晓程科技:PE 比行业中位高 55.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 42.6个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}