{"F": {"ts_code": "300138.SZ", "name": "晨光生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.03, "pe_ttm": 17.4825, "pb": 1.7093, "dv_ttm": 2.4938, "total_mv": 581169.4203, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 14.8, 13.9, 11.6, 8.0, 13.1], "rev_series": [39.1, 48.7, 63.0, 68.7, 69.9, 65.6], "np_series": [2.7, 3.5, 4.3, 4.8, 0.9, 3.7], "roe_series": [14.0, 14.5, 14.6, 14.5, 2.9, 11.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.6, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_ttm": -5.4, "fcf_yield": -9.3, "ocf_yield": -6.9, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.8, "fix_assets": 15.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.71, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 53.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.6, "debt_ratio": 64.1, "debt_mv": 91.5, "payout": 39.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": -5.3, "rev_yoy": -13.6, "np_yoy": -17.0, "np_vol": 125.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 28.0], ["天然色素/香辛料/甜味剂/营养及药用类产品", 15.0], ["色素/香辛料/营养及药用类产品", 15.0], ["色素/香辛料/甜味剂/营养及药用类产品", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.1, "ret_prev2_year": -35.6, "ret_ytd": -0.7, "ret_pivot": 78.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": 25.3, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -13.5, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 78.1}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 41, "hard": 25, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.5 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.3%(经营现金流/市值 -6.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 25% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "晨光生物:PE 比行业中位低 21.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.7个百分点。"]}}