{"F": {"ts_code": "300137.SZ", "name": "先河环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.16, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.7059, "dv_ttm": 0.2688, "total_mv": 598825.7352, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.9, 44.0, 38.7, 40.4, 37.0, 38.1], "rev_series": [12.5, 11.1, 10.1, 9.7, 9.5, 9.2], "np_series": [1.3, 0.7, -1.0, -1.2, -1.5, 0.1], "roe_series": [6.5, 3.4, -4.9, -6.7, -9.0, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -5.2, "ocf_yield": -4.8, "gm_median": 38.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": -9.3, "roe_median": -4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.5, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 3.71, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 32.7, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 150.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.5, "np_yoy": -186.9, "np_vol": 113.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["运营及咨询服务", 30.0], ["环境监测系统", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.9, "ret_prev2_year": 8.7, "ret_ytd": 8.0, "ret_pivot": 208.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -32.6, "ret_120": -16.7, "ret_250": 60.6, "mdd_250": -54.6, "vol_250": 62.2, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 38, "bondness": 60}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.7%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.2%(经营现金流/市值 -4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -33% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "先河环保:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}