{"F": {"ts_code": "300133.SZ", "name": "华策影视", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.67, "pe_ttm": 59.7975, "pb": 1.9352, "dv_ttm": 0.1433, "total_mv": 1437949.8939, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 22.9, 33.7, 28.5, 31.1, 23.4], "rev_series": [37.3, 38.1, 24.7, 22.7, 19.4, 28.3], "np_series": [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.8, 2.4, 1.9], "roe_series": [7.4, 6.6, 6.0, 5.5, 3.4, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.2, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -13.9, "fcf_yield": -9.7, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 28.5, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 6.9, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.1, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 8.2, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 11.44, "interest_debt": 31.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 42.7, "debt_mv": 21.9, "payout": 20.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -22.0, "rev_yoy": -13.2, "np_yoy": 42.0, "np_vol": 14.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 41.7, "fwd_pe2": 34.7, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 2.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["算力业务", 14.0], ["算力", 14.0], ["经纪服务", 13.0], ["经纪业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.8, "ret_prev2_year": 24.0, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 54.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 8.9, "ret_120": -2.0, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 59.0, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 55, "hard": 10, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.8 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.5%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 11.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 9% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "华策影视:PE 比行业中位低 25.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}