{"F": {"ts_code": "300132.SZ", "name": "诺斯贝尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "化妆品制造及其他", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.36, "pe_ttm": 18.0365, "pb": 2.176, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 328545.4524, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 13.0, 5.7, 12.1, 17.4, 20.5], "rev_series": [38.6, 36.9, 29.2, 19.7, 19.4, 22.2], "np_series": [4.6, -9.1, -7.4, -0.7, 0.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [15.0, -34.6, -42.2, -5.1, 4.2, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.9, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 8.4, "ocf_yield": 10.8, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": -20.0, "npm_median": -3.5, "roe_median": -5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.9, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 1.7, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 34.2, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.2, "np_yoy": 105.5, "np_vol": 176.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 18.2, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化妆品", 25.0], ["产品", 25.0], ["面膜系列", 11.0], ["化妆品：面膜系列", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 76.7, "ret_prev2_year": -5.6, "ret_ytd": -27.0, "ret_pivot": 79.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -0.9, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 65.2}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 32, "hard": 21, "bondness": 22}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 106%,PE TTM 18.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.2 倍,PEG 0.76。", "自由现金流 2.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(6 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -0% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "诺斯贝尔:PE 比行业中位低 13.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 40.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点。"]}}