{"F": {"ts_code": "300129.SZ", "name": "泰胜风能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20101019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.37, "pe_ttm": 70.4759, "pb": 1.4327, "dv_ttm": 0.8141, "total_mv": 817224.8821, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 16.3, 18.4, 18.1, 13.8, 12.1], "rev_series": [36.0, 38.5, 31.3, 48.1, 48.4, 51.9], "np_series": [3.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 1.8, 2.1], "roe_series": [14.2, 9.7, 8.1, 7.0, 4.2, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.5, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -4.1, "fcf_ttm": -7.1, "fcf_yield": -8.7, "ocf_yield": -5.0, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.3, "fix_assets": 32.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 19.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 48.3, "debt_mv": 24.1, "payout": 26.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": -32.3, "np_yoy": -82.8, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 27.7, "fwd_pe2": 22.3, "fwd_g1": 154.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["陆上风电装备（含混凝土塔筒）", 45.0], ["新能源装备业务(陆上风电装备)", 45.0], ["海上风电及海洋工程装备", 3.0], ["新能源装备业务(海上风电及海洋工程装备)", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.6, "ret_ytd": -29.1, "ret_pivot": 18.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.6, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": -52.4, "ret_250": -4.8, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 65.2, "pos_52w": 43.5}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 43, "hard": 45, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 70.5 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.7%(经营现金流/市值 -5.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -18% / -52%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "泰胜风能:PE 比行业中位高 38.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}