{"F": {"ts_code": "300124.SZ", "name": "汇川技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 59.31, "pe_ttm": 32.8353, "pb": 4.3661, "dv_ttm": 0.8423, "total_mv": 16060211.1096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.0, 35.8, 35.0, 33.5, 28.7, 29.0], "rev_series": [115.1, 179.4, 230.1, 304.2, 370.4, 451.0], "np_series": [21.0, 35.7, 43.2, 47.4, 42.9, 50.5], "roe_series": [21.8, 26.9, 24.2, 21.4, 16.3, 15.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 492.7, "np_ttm": 48.9, "ocf_ttm": 56.4, "fcf_ttm": 24.6, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 15.7, "roe_median": 21.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.8, "fix_assets": 117.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 4.37, "capex_dep": 3.29, "interest_debt": 31.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 48.0, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 25.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.2, "np_cagr3": 5.3, "rev_yoy": 20.3, "np_yoy": -5.4, "np_vol": 26.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 26.8, "fwd_pe2": 22.2, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工业自动化与数字化", 27.0], ["新能源汽车动力系统", 19.0], ["新兴产业", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": -6.7, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 39.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": -16.9, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 38.3, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 53, "hard": 25, "bondness": 15}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.8 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.5%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 3.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.8 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -14% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "汇川技术:PE 比行业中位低 44.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}