{"F": {"ts_code": "300121.SZ", "name": "阳谷华泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "橡胶助剂", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100917", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.54, "pe_ttm": 32.6876, "pb": 1.1941, "dv_ttm": 1.548, "total_mv": 424758.3141, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 22.8, 27.7, 22.3, 18.2, 17.4], "rev_series": [19.4, 27.1, 35.2, 34.5, 34.3, 34.4], "np_series": [1.3, 2.8, 5.2, 3.0, 1.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [7.6, 15.8, 21.9, 10.2, 5.7, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.9, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 8.2, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.9, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.17, "capex_dep": 1.52, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 21.7, "debt_mv": 12.9, "payout": 33.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": -27.4, "rev_yoy": 8.7, "np_yoy": -53.0, "np_vol": 66.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 108.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高性能橡胶助剂", 29.0], ["多功能橡胶助剂", 21.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.3, "ret_prev2_year": 42.3, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": 44.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -29.6, "ret_120": -31.9, "ret_250": -33.5, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 54.4, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 51, "hard": 56, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.7 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -30% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "阳谷华泰:PE 比行业中位高 3.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点。"]}}