{"F": {"ts_code": "300118.SZ", "name": "东方日升", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3774, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1076173.1216, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.7, 6.6, 10.7, 14.6, 6.3, 0.4], "rev_series": [160.6, 188.3, 293.8, 353.3, 202.4, 125.8], "np_series": [1.7, -0.4, 9.4, 13.6, -34.4, -28.3], "roe_series": [2.0, -0.5, 10.6, 11.1, -25.7, -28.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 91.6, "np_ttm": -29.7, "ocf_ttm": 11.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 10.3, "gm_median": 6.6, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.28, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": -0.1, "roe_median": -0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.2, "fix_assets": 151.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 0.41, "interest_debt": 113.0, "debt_ebitda": 117.0, "debt_ratio": 72.0, "debt_mv": 105.0, "payout": 16.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -24.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -46.0, "np_yoy": -20.8, "np_vol": 984.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["太阳能电池组件", 18.0], ["太阳能电池及组件", 18.0], ["太阳能电站EPC与转让", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.4, "ret_prev2_year": -31.3, "ret_ytd": -35.6, "ret_pivot": 5.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -27.5, "ret_120": -51.8, "ret_250": -13.1, "mdd_250": -62.7, "vol_250": 66.7, "pos_52w": 39.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 18, "hard": 87, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 117.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 28%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 28%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 0.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -28% / -52%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "东方日升:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.6个百分点。"]}}