{"F": {"ts_code": "300115.SZ", "name": "长盈精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.57, "pe_ttm": 103.7124, "pb": 3.8589, "dv_ttm": 0.5091, "total_mv": 3208702.1881, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 17.4, 17.4, 19.9, 18.5, 19.0], "rev_series": [98.0, 110.5, 152.0, 137.2, 169.3, 188.2], "np_series": [6.0, -6.0, 0.4, 0.9, 7.7, 6.0], "roe_series": [10.9, -9.7, 0.7, 1.5, 11.2, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 209.1, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_ttm": -36.9, "fcf_yield": -11.5, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -11.0, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.1, "fix_assets": 109.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 3.86, "capex_dep": 4.37, "interest_debt": 114.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 67.9, "debt_mv": 35.5, "payout": 24.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": 141.3, "rev_yoy": 24.2, "np_yoy": -94.2, "np_vol": 340.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 34.5, "fwd_pe2": 24.4, "fwd_g1": 200.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能终端及电子产品精密零组件", 18.0], ["智能终端及电子产品", 18.0], ["新能源关键结构件及连接组件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 190.1, "ret_prev2_year": 23.0, "ret_ytd": -49.2, "ret_pivot": 132.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.9, "ret_60": -19.1, "ret_120": -31.9, "ret_250": -7.6, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 66.1, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 46, "hard": 64, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 4.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -19% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "长盈精密:PE 比行业中位高 57.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点。"]}}