{"F": {"ts_code": "300107.SZ", "name": "建新股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.98, "pe_ttm": 266.3021, "pb": 2.5854, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 392822.0454, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 11.5, 15.8, 11.9, 9.7, 6.4], "rev_series": [5.6, 6.3, 7.4, 6.6, 6.1, 4.7], "np_series": [0.5, 0.1, 0.6, 0.1, 0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [2.8, 0.9, 4.2, 1.0, 1.3, -1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 11.5, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.8, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.59, "capex_dep": 2.46, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 52.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -14.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 51.4, "np_yoy": 790.3, "np_vol": 196.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纸张化学品", 33.0], ["复合材料和新材料中间体", 24.0], ["染料和日化中间体", 20.0], ["医药和农药中间体", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.6, "ret_prev2_year": 77.9, "ret_ytd": 2.3, "ret_pivot": -14.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 18.5, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": -15.1, "mdd_250": -43.0, "vol_250": 42.3, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 75, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 2.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 266.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 18% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "建新股份:PE 比行业中位高 230.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}