{"F": {"ts_code": "300106.SZ", "name": "西部牧业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.44, "pe_ttm": 101.6741, "pb": 6.0041, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 241764.1512, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.5, 17.1, 16.9, 13.1, 6.8, 10.9], "rev_series": [8.2, 11.3, 13.2, 11.2, 9.4, 9.2], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.1, -0.6, -1.2, -0.5], "roe_series": [2.1, 2.5, 2.2, -11.2, -24.7, -12.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": -2.9, "roe_median": -11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.7, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 6.0, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 50.4, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -11.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 22.4, "np_yoy": 170.7, "np_vol": 240.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["乳制品", 42.0], ["其他业务收入", 5.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.4, "ret_prev2_year": -8.4, "ret_ytd": 6.4, "ret_pivot": 81.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.5, "ret_60": -3.1, "ret_120": 5.4, "ret_250": -8.9, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 78.2}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 40, "hard": 43, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 102 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 101.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / -3% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "西部牧业:PE 比行业中位高 72.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}